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In 2018, China's new installed power generation capacity is 120 million kilowattsOn the morning of January 31, China Power Grid issued the report on analysis and forecast of national power supply and demand situation in 2017-2018 (hereinafter referred to as the report). According to the report, China's electricity consumption in 2017 was 6.3 trillion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 6.6% and a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. Affected by the high base number in 2017 and other factors, it is estimated that the electricity consumption of the whole society will increase by about 5.5% in 2018.
According to the report, the growth rate of electricity consumption of the whole society in 2017 was higher than that of the previous year, and the growth of electricity consumption showed a new bright spot.
First, the electricity consumption of the secondary industry and manufacturing industry increased by 5.5% and 5.8% year-on-year, increasing by 2.7% and 3.4% respectively, the highest growth rate since 2014. The growth rate of electricity consumption in emerging industries was higher than that in the previous year, and the structural reform on the supply side gave birth to a new growth point of electricity consumption.
Second, the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry increased by 10.7% year-on-year, continuing the trend of double-digit high-speed growth. The power consumption of emerging business services such as computer services grew strongly, driving the rapid growth of electricity consumption of the whole society.
The third is the steady growth of household electricity consumption, and the acceleration of power substitution in the field of residents' life, which significantly promotes the residents' power consumption. The domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents increased by 7.8% year on year, showing a new growth point.
Fourth, the power consumption structure has been continuously optimized. Affected by the drop-down of the proportion of electricity used by the four high energy consuming industries, the proportion of the secondary industry in the total social electricity consumption decreased by 0.6 percentage points year on year; the proportion of power consumption in the tertiary industry increased year by year, to 14.2% in 2017, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points. According to the forecast of China power grid, about 120 million kilowatts of new installed capacity will be installed nationwide in 2018, of which the installed capacity of non fossil energy power generation will be about 70 million kilowatts.
It is estimated that by the end of 2018, China's installed power generation capacity will reach 1.9 billion kilowatts, including 760 million kilowatts generated by non fossil energy, accounting for about 40% of the total installed capacity. Considering the macro-economy, service industry and residential electricity development trend, air pollution control, power substitution and high base number in 2017, China Power Grid predicts that the electricity consumption in 2018 will continue to maintain the steady and rapid growth level in 2017, and the electricity consumption of the whole society is expected to increase by about 5.5% in the normal year and without the influence of large-scale extreme temperature. It is estimated that in 2018, the overall supply and demand of power in China will be relaxed, the power supply capacity in Northeast and northwest regions will be surplus, the overall power supply and demand in East China and central China will be balanced, and the power supply and demand in some regions will be tight during peak period of power consumption. It is estimated that the utilization hours of power generation equipment in the whole year will be about 3710 hours, slightly lower than that in 2017.
